FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Lazio 1–0 GenoaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lazio or draw at 71%. Bawler had Lazio at 43%, the draw at 28% and Genoa at 29%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
43%
Result
Draw
28%
Genoa win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.