FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 31 August 2026
Lecce 0–4 AS RomaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 81%. Bawler had Lecce at 19%, the draw at 25% and AS Roma at 56%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
19%
Draw
25%
AS Roma win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.7
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Roma or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.