FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Leeds United 0–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Leeds United or draw at 69%. Bawler had Leeds United at 43%, the draw at 25% and Crystal Palace at 31%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Leeds United win
43%
Draw
25%
Result
Crystal Palace win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Leeds' 1.51 xG and Palace's 1.39 xG combine for attacking threat despite their narrow 0.12-point gap in expected output."