Leeds United and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Leeds United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; nobody scored. Leeds United had 13 shots (2 on target) to Crystal Palace's 12 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Leeds United and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Leeds United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; nobody scored. Leeds United had 13 shots (2 on target) to Crystal Palace's 12 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 0.8.
Leeds United 0–0 Crystal Palace, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Leeds United 43%, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 31%.
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–0.8, Shots 13–12, Shots on target 2–4, Shots inside box 9–4, Big chances 1–2, Corners 4–3, Saves 5–2, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–3.
No. It finished 0–0, so Leeds United failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Leeds United or draw 69%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Missed.