FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 14 September 2026
Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Leeds United or draw at 68%. Bawler had Leeds United at 43%, the draw at 25% and Newcastle United at 32%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Leeds United win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Newcastle United win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because Leeds' 1.66 xG and Newcastle's 1.41 xG combine for a high-volume attacking forecast despite both sides sitting level on points."