How it finished
Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4–1. Bawler's model had Leeds United in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Leeds United had 15 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 7 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4–1. Bawler's model had Leeds United in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Leeds United had 15 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 7 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle United, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Leeds United 43%, the draw 25% and Newcastle United 32%.
What were the stats in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–0.9, Shots 15–7, Shots on target 6–5, Shots inside box 10–4, Big chances 3–1, Corners 5–5, Saves 4–3, Fouls 8–13, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
Yes — both Leeds United and Newcastle United scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Leeds United vs Newcastle United right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Leeds United or draw 68%, it finished Leeds United won (43% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed.