How it finished
Lithuania and Azerbaijan drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Lithuania at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.6 goals; only 2 were scored. Lithuania had 9 shots (3 on target) to Azerbaijan's 9 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Lithuania and Azerbaijan drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Lithuania at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.6 goals; only 2 were scored. Lithuania had 9 shots (3 on target) to Azerbaijan's 9 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lithuania 46%, the draw 23% and Azerbaijan 31%.
What were the stats in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.9, Shots 9–9, Shots on target 3–4, Shots inside box 4–7, Big chances 2–0, Corners 0–2, Saves 3–2, Fouls 15–16, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Yes — both Lithuania and Azerbaijan scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 68% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lithuania or draw 69%, it finished Draw (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 68%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 87%, it finished Landed.