FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Liverpool 3–1 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool or draw at 80%. Bawler had Liverpool at 56%, the draw at 24% and Tottenham Hotspur at 20%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
56%
Result
Draw
24%
Tottenham Hotspur win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Liverpool or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's 0.83 expected-goals advantage and 56% win probability make the Liverpool or draw forecast the model's high-confidence call, with Ekitiké and Richarlison combining for 48% of attacking output in a low-scoring contest."