EUROPE: Champions League - QualificationTuesday 11 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Lyon vSparta Prague

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Lyon 68%Draw 22%Sparta Prague 10%
Strongest call
Lyon to win
83%
How we get there
LyonstepSparta Prague
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Lyon to win
83%
Not both teams to score
51%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Lyon average 5.9 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Sparta Prague average 5.2 corners per game away from home this season (6 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Lyon fixtures & form →Sparta Prague fixtures & form →

Lyon vs Sparta Prague — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 4 August 2026, Lyon have won 0, Sparta Prague have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
4 August 2026Sparta Prague 2–1 LyonEurope: Champions League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Lyon 68% · draw 22% · Sparta Prague 10%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Lyon predictions & form →Sparta Prague predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lyon 3–0 Sparta Prague
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.