FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lyon 4–0 Stade RennaisMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 74%. Bawler had Lyon at 51%, the draw at 24% and Stade Rennais at 26%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
51%
Result
Draw
24%
Stade Rennais win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lyon to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lyon's 0.55 expected-goals edge and 50% win probability underpin an 82% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, as Lacazette's striker role and Rennais's defensive vulnerability suggest a multi-goal affair."