FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 75%. Bawler had Marseille at 25%, the draw at 23% and Paris Saint-Germain at 52%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
25%
Draw
23%
Paris Saint-Germain win
52%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 4.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 83%, as PSG's 1.87 xG edge and superior attacking threat—led by Dembélé's creative wing play—should crack Marseille's 1.33 xG despite Greenwood's individual threat."