How it finished
Paris Saint-Germain beat Marseille 2–1. Bawler's model had Paris Saint-Germain in front at 52% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Marseille had 12 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 31 (10), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 4.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain beat Marseille 2–1. Bawler's model had Paris Saint-Germain in front at 52% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Marseille had 12 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 31 (10), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 4.4.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Marseille 25%, the draw 23% and Paris Saint-Germain 52%.
What were the stats in Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Full-time: Possession 39%–61%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–4.4, Shots 12–31, Shots on target 4–10, Shots inside box 7–22, Big chances 3–8, Corners 3–7, Saves 8–3, Fouls 9–3, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 4–1, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Yes — both Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Paris Saint-Germain or draw 75%, it finished Paris Saint-Germain won (52% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Paris Saint-Germain to win 52%, it finished Landed.