FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Mexico 1–1 ColombiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Mexico or draw at 70%. Bawler had Mexico at 40%, the draw at 30% and Colombia at 30%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mexico win
40%
Draw
30%
Result
Colombia win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.1
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mexico or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Mexico's narrow 0.23 xG edge and 41% win probability support a Mexico or draw forecast at 70%, with striker Giménez controlling 22% of their attacking threat at home."

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