How it finished
Mexico and Colombia drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Mexico at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 30%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 2. Mexico had 16 shots (4 on target) to Colombia's 5 (2), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Mexico vs Colombia?
Mexico and Colombia drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Mexico at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 30%. It forecast 2.4 goals and the match produced 2. Mexico had 16 shots (4 on target) to Colombia's 5 (2), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.
What was the final score in Mexico vs Colombia?
Mexico 1–1 Colombia, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mexico 40%, the draw 30% and Colombia 30%.
What were the stats in Mexico vs Colombia?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.6, Shots 16–5, Shots on target 4–2, Shots inside box 9–4, Big chances 3–1, Corners 2–5, Saves 1–3, Fouls 19–18, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Mexico vs Colombia?
Yes — both Mexico and Colombia scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Mexico vs Colombia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Mexico or draw 70%, it finished Draw (30% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes.