Mexico vEngland
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% because Mexico's 1.49 xG and England's 1.27 combine for a 2.76 total that projects well past the line, despite Mexico's narrow 39% win probability masking even scoring chances.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Mexico average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). England average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Mexico vs England — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Mexico and England — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Mexico 39% · draw 31% · England 30%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.