Mexico vSouth Korea
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% is the play—Mexico's 1.64 xG dominance and 0.43 edge over South Korea projects a low-scoring but open contest where both teams' creators (Giménez, Son) threaten consistently.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Mexico average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). South Korea average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Mexico vs South Korea — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Mexico and South Korea — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Mexico 44% · draw 30% · South Korea 26%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.