> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Friday 19 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Mexico vs South Korea
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% is the play—Mexico's 1.64 xG dominance and 0.43 edge over South Korea projects a low-scoring but open contest where both teams' creators (Giménez, Son) threaten consistently.
Win probability
44.3% home30.1% draw25.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MexicostepSouth Korea
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.20
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Raúl Jiménez 1+ Shot on Target + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 23.1% · @ 4.32x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mexico 1–0 South Korea
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+