FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Middlesbrough 2–2 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 76%. Bawler had Middlesbrough at 50%, the draw at 26% and Millwall at 24%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
50%
Draw
26%
Result
Millwall win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Millwall to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's 0.57 expected-goals advantage powers a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, as the hosts' attacking superiority should generate multiple clear chances against a visiting side managing just 1.08 xG."