FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Middlesbrough 3–1 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 76%. Bawler had Middlesbrough at 48%, the draw at 27% and West Bromwich Albion at 24%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
48%
Result
Draw
27%
West Bromwich Albion win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
West Bromwich Albion to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's comfort at fourth with nothing to play for faces a West Brom side fighting relegation, yet their 0.52 xG advantage and 72% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals suggests both teams will find the net despite vastly different stakes."