ENGLAND: EFL CupFriday 07 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Middlesbrough vWrexham

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Middlesbrough 57%Draw 29%Wrexham 14%
Strongest call
Middlesbrough to win
69%
How we get there
MiddlesbroughstepWrexham
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Middlesbrough to win
69%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Wrexham or draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Middlesbrough average 7.6 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Wrexham average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Middlesbrough fixtures & form →Wrexham fixtures & form →

Middlesbrough vs Wrexham — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Middlesbrough and Wrexham — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Middlesbrough 57% · draw 29% · Wrexham 14%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Middlesbrough predictions & form →Wrexham predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.