FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Millwall 2–2 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United or draw at 73%. Bawler had Millwall at 27%, the draw at 24% and West Ham United at 48%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
27%
Draw
24%
Result
West Ham United win
48%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.8
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
West Ham United or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals looks a strong forecast at 78% probability, built on West Ham's 0.49 xG advantage and Castellanos leading their attack with 26% of team expected output."