USA: MLSSunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vSan Diego FC

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.10 goals expected
Minnesota United FC 51%Draw 27%San Diego FC 21%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
78%

Minnesota's 0.72 xG edge and 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability signal a mismatch in attacking threat that should deliver goals.

How we get there
Minnesota United FCstepSan Diego FC
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.91Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.19
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Minnesota United average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). San Diego average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
9
10
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
4
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Minnesota United vs San Diego — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Minnesota United and San Diego — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Minnesota United 51% · draw 27% · San Diego 21%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Minnesota United FC 11 San Diego FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.