USA: MLSSunday 26 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vVancouver Whitecaps

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.93 goals expected
Minnesota United FC 29%Draw 30%Vancouver Whitecaps 41%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% with both sides generating 2.93 combined xG, anchored by Vancouver's Brian White (24% of team xG) facing Minnesota's attacking threat at home.

How we get there
Minnesota United FCstepVancouver Whitecaps
1.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.71
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.60
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Minnesota United average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Vancouver Whitecaps average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (29 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
9
7
4
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Minnesota United and Vancouver Whitecaps — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Minnesota United 29% · draw 30% · Vancouver Whitecaps 41%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Minnesota United FC 00 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.