Montenegro vs Armenia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 5 Oct · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 5 Oct · 19:45 UK
Montenegro 61Draw 21Armenia 18
Our call before kickoff
61%
Montenegro to win
Missed
3.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
77%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
60%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
64%

How it finished

Montenegro and Armenia drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Montenegro at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.3 goals; nobody scored. Montenegro had 8 shots (5 on target) to Armenia's 9 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.2.

MontenegroFull-time statsArmenia
64%Possession36%
0.5Expected goals (xG)0.2
8Shots9
5Shots on target2
4Shots inside box3
1Big chances0
4Corners2
2Saves5
15Fouls11
1Offsides1
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callMontenegro to win 61%Draw (21% called)
Total goals3.30
Both teams to score60%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

MontenegroArmenia
2.2
Goals+1.1
1.1
MontenegroArmenia
0.6
Goals+0.2
0.4
MontenegroArmenia
1.6
Goals+0.8
0.7

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Montenegro to score89%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Armenia to score67%
Over 2.5 goals64%

First half — what we expected

Montenegro
62%
to score before half-time
Armenia
39%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 4Montenegro 1 · Draws 1 · Armenia 2

Head to head

Jun 2025Montenegro 2–2 Armenia
Mar 2022Armenia 1–0 Montenegro
Jun 2017Montenegro 4–1 Armenia
Nov 2016Armenia 3–2 Montenegro
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Montenegro vs Armenia?

Montenegro and Armenia drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Montenegro at 61% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.3 goals; nobody scored. Montenegro had 8 shots (5 on target) to Armenia's 9 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.2.

What was the final score in Montenegro vs Armenia?

Montenegro 0–0 Armenia, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Montenegro 61%, the draw 21% and Armenia 18%.

What were the stats in Montenegro vs Armenia?

Full-time: Possession 64%–36%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–0.2, Shots 8–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 4–3, Big chances 1–0, Corners 4–2, Saves 2–5, Fouls 15–11, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–2, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Montenegro vs Armenia?

No. It finished 0–0, so Montenegro failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Montenegro vs Armenia right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Montenegro to win 61%, it finished Draw (21% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Montenegro form →Armenia form →