World: World CupWednesday 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC

Morocco vHaiti

Most likely scoreline
20
12% of the time · 2.90 goals expected
Morocco 64%Draw 24%Haiti 12%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
76%

Over 2.5 Goals hits 76% probability because Morocco's 2.10 xG dwarfs Haiti's 0.81, giving the hosts a decisive 1.29-goal edge at home.

How we get there
MoroccostepHaiti
2.08Base xG · rolling 26-match0.82
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.08Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.82
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Morocco average 5.0 corners per game this season (4 competitive matches). Haiti average 2.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
2
1
1
11
9
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
8
7
3
1
4
4
4
1
5
2
1
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Wilson Isidor
Haiti · Sunderland
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Morocco vs Haiti — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Morocco and Haiti — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Morocco 64% · draw 24% · Haiti 12%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Morocco 42 Haiti
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.