EUROPE: Conference League - QualificationThursday 13 Aug, 18:30 UTC
Motherwell vHJK Helsinki
Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Motherwell 40%Draw 28%HJK Helsinki 32%
Strongest call
Motherwell or Draw
68%
How we get there
MotherwellstepHJK Helsinki1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Motherwell or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Motherwell Win
40%
Draw
28%
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Motherwell average 3.7 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches).
Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
More predictions for these teams
Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki — Head-to-Head
In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Motherwell have won 0, HJK Helsinki have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 August 2026 | HJK Helsinki 1–1 Motherwell | EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification |
The model's verdict for this fixture: Motherwell 40% · draw 28% · HJK Helsinki 32%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
⚡ Full-time recap available
Motherwell 2–0 HJK HelsinkiSee how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.