FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Napoli 1–2 ComoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 68%. Bawler had Napoli at 32%, the draw at 29% and Como at 40%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
32%
Draw
29%
Como win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.