USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vCF Montréal

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.70 goals expected
Nashville SC 44%Draw 31%CF Montréal 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
73%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 73% because Nashville's 1.56 xG and Montréal's 1.13 xG create a combined attacking threat that consistently breaches the low-scoring threshold.

How we get there
Nashville SCstepCF Montréal
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.21
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.13
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Over 3.5 goals
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Nashville average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). CF Montréal average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Nashville vs CF Montréal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Nashville and CF Montréal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nashville 44% · draw 31% · CF Montréal 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Nashville SC 10 CF Montréal
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.