World: World CupTuesday 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC

Netherlands vMorocco

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.87 goals expected
Netherlands 40%Draw 30%Morocco 29%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because both sides carry genuine attacking threat—Netherlands' 1.56 xG led by Gakpo and Morocco's 1.31 anchored by En-Nesyri project a combined 2.87 expected goals in a fixture too even to stay quiet.

How we get there
NetherlandsstepMorocco
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.31
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Netherlands or draw
74%
Under 2.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Cody Gakpo
Netherlands · Liverpool
42%
To score
Memphis Depay
Netherlands · Corinthians
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Netherlands vs Morocco — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Netherlands and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Netherlands 40% · draw 30% · Morocco 29%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Netherlands 11 Morocco
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.