Netherlands vSweden
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 77% because Netherlands' 1.83 xG advantage and Gakpo's 22% of team shot creation will likely overwhelm Sweden's 1.08 xG.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Sweden average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Netherlands vs Sweden — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Netherlands and Sweden — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Netherlands 52% · draw 28% · Sweden 20%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.