FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was New England Revolution or draw at 74%. Bawler had New England Revolution at 52%, the draw at 22% and Orlando City SC at 26%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
New England Revolution win
52%
Result
Draw
22%
Orlando City SC win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.4
Total 3.5
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
New England Revolution to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, backed by New England's 0.43 xG advantage and combined attacking forecast of 3.32 expected goals."