USA: MLSWednesday 22 Jul, 23:30 UTC

New England Revolution vToronto FC

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.57 goals expected
New England Revolution 40%Draw 32%Toronto FC 28%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
69%

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% because New England's attacking threat—led by Kane at 22% of team xG—outweighs Toronto's defensive capacity in a fixture where combined xG reaches 2.57.

How we get there
New England RevolutionstepToronto FC
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.15
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Both teams to score
51%
Draw
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

New England Revolution average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Toronto average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
New England Revolution · Arsenal
42%
To score
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

New England Revolution vs Toronto — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New England Revolution and Toronto — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: New England Revolution 40% · draw 32% · Toronto 28%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
New England Revolution 00 Toronto FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.