New York City FC vChicago Fire FC
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 77% probability because both sides project nearly even attacking threat—NYCFC's 1.55 xG and Chicago's 1.40 xG combine for a 2.95-goal fixture that punishes the under.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
New York City average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Chicago Fire average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).
More predictions for these teams
New York City vs Chicago Fire — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New York City and Chicago Fire — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: New York City 38% · draw 30% · Chicago Fire 32%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.