New York City FC vToronto FC
Over 1.5 Goals at 69% probability is the lock here—New York City's 0.41 xG advantage and Martínez leading their attack sets up a low-scoring but inevitable breakthrough.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
New York City average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Toronto average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).
More predictions for these teams
New York City vs Toronto — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New York City and Toronto — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: New York City 43% · draw 31% · Toronto 25%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.