FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Nice 2–1 LilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 71%. Bawler had Nice at 29%, the draw at 27% and Lille at 44%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nice win
29%
Result
Draw
27%
Lille win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 77%, as Lille's 0.40 xG advantage and Jonathan David's 28% of team shot creation suggest enough attacking thrust to break through Nice's modest 1.19 expected output."