How it finished
Nice beat Lille 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lille at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Nice 29%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Nice had 10 shots (4 on target) to Lille's 21 (8), with 41% of the ball against 59%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.6, so Lille created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Nice vs Lille?
Nice beat Lille 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Lille at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Nice 29%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Nice had 10 shots (4 on target) to Lille's 21 (8), with 41% of the ball against 59%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.6, so Lille created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Nice vs Lille?
Nice 2–1 Lille, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Nice 29%, the draw 27% and Lille 44%.
What were the stats in Nice vs Lille?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.6, Shots 10–21, Shots on target 4–8, Shots inside box 7–14, Big chances 3–3, Corners 3–7, Saves 7–3, Fouls 16–9, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Nice vs Lille?
Yes — both Nice and Lille scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Nice vs Lille right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lille or draw 71%, it finished Nice won (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.