World: World CupSaturday 11 Jul, 21:00 UTC

Norway vEngland

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.81 goals expected
Norway 24%Draw 27%England 49%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
71%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 71% probability because England's 1.59 xG and Norway's 1.21 xG combine for genuine attacking threat despite Haaland and Kane's contrasting output weights.

How we get there
NorwaystepEngland
1.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.59
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.21Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
England to win
51%
Norway to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Norway average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). England average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
8
4
2
1
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Erling Haaland
Norway · Man City
62%
To score
Harry Kane
England · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Alexander Sørloth
Norway · Atletico Madrid
42%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Norway vs England — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Norway and England — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Norway 24% · draw 27% · England 49%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Norway 12 England
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.