FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Norway 1–2 PortugalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Norway
1–2
Portugal win
Portugal

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Norway or draw at 65%. Bawler had Norway at 39%, the draw at 26% and Portugal at 35%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Norway win
39%
Draw
26%
Portugal win
35%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 82% forecast because Norway's 1.65 xG and Portugal's 1.45 xG combine for a high-scoring projection, with Haaland and Leão driving their respective attacks."

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