How it finished
Portugal beat Norway 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Norway at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Portugal 35%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Norway had 22 shots (6 on target) to Portugal's 12 (4), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 2.7 to 1.0, so Norway created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Norway vs Portugal?
Portugal beat Norway 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Norway at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Portugal 35%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Norway had 22 shots (6 on target) to Portugal's 12 (4), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 2.7 to 1.0, so Norway created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Norway vs Portugal?
Norway 1–2 Portugal, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Norway 39%, the draw 26% and Portugal 35%.
What were the stats in Norway vs Portugal?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–1.0, Shots 22–12, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 16–7, Big chances 5–3, Corners 7–2, Saves 2–5, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–6.
Did both teams score in Norway vs Portugal?
Yes — both Norway and Portugal scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Norway vs Portugal right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Norway or draw 65%, it finished Portugal won (35% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.