World: World CupTuesday 23 Jun, 00:00 UTC

Norway vSenegal

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.80 goals expected
Norway 32%Draw 31%Senegal 36%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Norway's Haaland and Senegal's Mané anchor a combined 2.79 xG with nearly even win odds (32% to 36%), guaranteeing attacking intent from both sides.

How we get there
NorwaystepSenegal
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.44
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.35Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.44
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Norway average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
6
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Erling Haaland
Norway · Man City
62%
To score
Alexander Sørloth
Norway · Atletico Madrid
42%
To score
Nicolas Jackson
Senegal · Bayern Munich
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Norway vs Senegal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Norway and Senegal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Norway 32% · draw 31% · Senegal 36%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Norway 32 Senegal
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.