USA: MLSSaturday 25 Jul, 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vNashville SC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 3.03 goals expected
Orlando City SC 32%Draw 30%Nashville SC 39%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability is the play—both sides project 3.03 combined xG with Nashville creator Hany Mukhtar driving 26% of his team's chances.

How we get there
Orlando City SCstepNashville SC
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Orlando City average 4.8 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Nashville average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Orlando City vs Nashville — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, Orlando City have won 0, Nashville have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
21 March 2026Nashville 50 Orlando CityUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Orlando City 32% · draw 30% · Nashville 39%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Orlando City SC 10 Nashville SC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.