FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Osasuna 0–2 EspanyolMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Osasuna or draw at 75%. Bawler had Osasuna at 49%, the draw at 26% and Espanyol at 25%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
49%
Draw
26%
Espanyol win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Osasuna or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 75% forecast weight as Osasuna's 0.51 expected-goals advantage at home signals sharper attacking intent than Espanyol's 1.09 xG can defend."