FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 31 August 2026
Osasuna 1–0 GetafeMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Osasuna or draw at 77%. Bawler had Osasuna at 48%, the draw at 29% and Getafe at 23%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
48%
Result
Draw
29%
Getafe win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 0.9
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Osasuna or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 18%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.