FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Osasuna 1–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Osasuna or draw at 66%. Bawler had Osasuna at 39%, the draw at 27% and Rayo Vallecano at 34%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
39%
Draw
27%
Result
Rayo Vallecano win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because Osasuna's 1.41 xG and Rayo's 1.23 xG combine for 2.64 total attacking threat."