How it finished
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Osasuna at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Osasuna had 9 shots (3 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 19 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Osasuna at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Osasuna had 9 shots (3 on target) to Rayo Vallecano's 19 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Osasuna 39%, the draw 27% and Rayo Vallecano 34%.
What were the stats in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.2, Shots 9–19, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 8–6, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 1–2, Fouls 21–13, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Yes — both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Osasuna or draw 66%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.