World: World CupFriday 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC

Paraguay vAustralia

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Paraguay 23%Draw 32%Australia 45%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
74%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Australia's 1.49 xG and Paraguay's creator Almirón's 20% of team output suggest enough attacking thrust to breach the 1.5 threshold despite Paraguay's 23% win odds.

How we get there
ParaguaystepAustralia
1.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.49
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
12
9
5
2
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
4
6
5
2
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Paraguay vs Australia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Paraguay and Australia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Paraguay 23% · draw 32% · Australia 45%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Paraguay 00 Australia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.