Paraguay vAustralia
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because Australia's 1.49 xG and Paraguay's creator Almirón's 20% of team output suggest enough attacking thrust to breach the 1.5 threshold despite Paraguay's 23% win odds.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Paraguay vs Australia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Paraguay and Australia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Paraguay 23% · draw 32% · Australia 45%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.