World: World CupSaturday 04 Jul, 21:00 UTC

Paraguay vFrance

Most likely scoreline
01
13% of the time · 2.76 goals expected
Paraguay 12%Draw 25%France 63%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
71%

Over 2.5 Goals lands at 70% because France's 1.99 xG nearly doubles Paraguay's 0.76, with Mbappé and Thuram leading a 63% win-probability advantage that translates to relentless attacking pressure.

How we get there
ParaguaystepFrance
0.76Base xG · rolling 26-match2.00
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.76Final goal estimate — what the model uses2.00
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

France average 4.5 corners per game this season (4 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
13
13
8
4
2
1
1
5
10
10
6
3
1
2
2
4
4
2
1
3
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Kylian Mbappé
France · Real Madrid
55%
To score
Marcus Thuram
France · Inter Milan
42%
To score
Ousmane Dembélé
France · PSG
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Paraguay vs France — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Paraguay and France — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Paraguay 12% · draw 25% · France 63%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Paraguay 01 France
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.