FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Paris FC 2–1 StrasbourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Paris FC at 41%, the draw at 25% and Strasbourg at 34%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris FC win
41%
Result
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% as Paris FC (1.52 xG) and Strasbourg (1.57 xG) meet in a perfectly balanced encounter where Emanuel Emegha's striker presence anchors Strasbourg's attacking third."