FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Parma 2–1 GenoaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Genoa or draw at 69%. Bawler had Parma at 31%, the draw at 29% and Genoa at 40%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
31%
Result
Draw
29%
Genoa win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Genoa's superior shot-creation edge (1.30 xG vs 1.10) and 40% win probability over Parma's 31% makes a Parma draw-or-loss forecast the high-confidence call."