USA: MLSSaturday 01 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union vAtlanta United FC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 3.04 goals expected
Philadelphia Union 49%Draw 28%Atlanta United FC 23%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 77% because Philadelphia's 1.83 xG and Atlanta's 1.21 xG create a combined 3.04-goal expected output that heavily favors a multi-goal game.

How we get there
Philadelphia UnionstepAtlanta United FC
1.62Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.83Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.21
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Philadelphia Union average 7.1 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
3
1
1
9
11
6
3
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
4
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Philadelphia Union 49% · draw 28% · Atlanta Utd 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Philadelphia Union 32 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.