FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Philadelphia Union 4–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union to win at 60%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 60%, the draw at 20% and Orlando City SC at 20%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
60%
Result
Draw
20%
Orlando City SC win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.3
Total 3.7
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Philadelphia Union to win
Pre-match: 60%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Philadelphia's home advantage translates to a decisive 1.05 expected-goals edge, making a Union win the model's 60% forecast."